レース一覧に戻る

レース情報

日付 2026-01-18 会場 常滑 (08)
レース 10R 発走 14:46
データ作成 2026-01-18 14:36:27

結果

3連単
3-6-1
Sim #58 (0.44% / 84.5%)
払戻 ¥48,340
人気 91 状態 final
更新 2026-01-18 23:47:11

シナリオ / 総評

Breaker (攻め手) 6
Confidence (自信度) B
判定 / 決まり手 PASS / 逃げ

展開の理由:
A1-ranked 麻生慎介 is the class leader of the field. His atk_coef (1.226) and simulation win rate (13.1%) suggest he can exploit gaps despite the 6th course starting position.

スリット予測:
1st course 畔柳 faces a high start risk due to F1 status and a slow average ST (0.17). Side wind (North) may further delay the inside, while the outer lanes (Boat 4 and 6) show more aggressive potential.

支配的メカニズム:
Pattern 6-A (Makurisashi/Thrust) and Pattern 4-A (Makuri) are significant threats. The simulation shows a highly fragmented outcome where Pattern 1 (Nige) is not strong enough to anchor the race.

判断根拠:
Normalized Entropy (0.9038) exceeds the risk threshold (0.90), indicating extreme dispersion. The most probable outcome (1-2-6) holds only a 4.24% probability, and reaching even a 30% cumulative probability requires 10 points (min_bets_to_cover_percent['30']=10), which is above the 8-point limit for an efficient spread. The lack of a clear statistical core makes this race too unstable for investment.

AI総評:
This race is a mathematical PASS. The cumulative probability for the top 10 outcomes is only 31.16%, meaning nearly 70% of the possible results are highly fragmented 'long shot' combinations. With the highest individual combination probability sitting at a mere 4.24%, there is no reliable foundation for a structured bet. While Boat 6 offers significant EV (e.g., 6-1-5 with EV 4.07), the risk of 'himo-nuke' in such a high-entropy environment is too great. Preservation of capital is advised for more predictable race structures.

リスク指標 / ゾーン

SD閾値 9.2 Entropy 0.9038
Top1 4.24% Top5合計 17.6%
勝ち方分布 逃げ 45.2% / 差し 10.16% / まくり 23.74% / まくり差し 20.9%
ゾーン定義開く
ゾーンEVSD(荒れ度)アクション
鉄板 (Ironclad)高低厚張り (Bet Big)
穴狙い (Long Shot)高高少額分散 (Spread)
危険 (Trap)低高見 (Pass)
養分 (Sucker)低低見 (Pass)

予想買い目

平均オッズ: -

買い目データがありません。
モンテカルロシミュレーション開く
結果
3-6-1
(¥48,340)
試行回数 100000 イン逃げ率 36.7%
攻め艇 6 シミュ結果 -
勝ち方分布 逃げ: 45.2% / 差し: 10.16% / まくり: 23.74% / まくり差し: 20.9%

艇別入着率 (シミュレーション)

艇 1着率 2連帯率
(2着率)		 3連帯率
(3着率)
1 44.9% 67.1% (22.2%) 76.8% (9.8%)
2 5.4% 23.1% (17.6%) 40.8% (17.8%)
3 7.3% 23.2% (15.9%) 40.3% (17.1%)
4 18.3% 26% (7.7%) 36% (10%)
5 10.9% 30.7% (19.7%) 51.4% (20.7%)
6 13.1% 30.1% (16.9%) 54.7% (24.7%)

データ推奨フォーメーション

14
123456
123456
条件: 1着15%↑(1号艇30%↑), 2連帯30%↑または2着10%↑(or上位2/1号艇は50%↑・2着15%↑), 3連帯50%↑または3着10%↑
# 出現率(%) オッズ / EV
1
1-2-6
 4.24% (4.2%)
19.1
EV 0.81
2
1-3-6
 3.53% (7.8%)
60.9
EV 2.15
3
1-2-5
 3.35% (11.1%)
18.1
EV 0.606
4
1-5-6
 3.26% (14.4%)
34.7
EV 1.131
5
1-2-3
 3.22% (17.6%)
22.8
EV 0.734
6
1-3-2
 2.93% (20.5%)
36.8
EV 1.078
7
1-3-5
 2.87% (23.4%)
68.2
EV 1.957
8
6-1-5
 2.65% (26.1%)
153.8
EV 4.076
9
4-5-6
 2.65% (28.7%)
58.5
EV 1.55
10
1-5-2
 2.46% (31.2%)
33.8
EV 0.831
11
1-6-5
 2.45% (33.6%)
40.8
EV 1
12
1-6-2
 2.4% (36.0%)
37.3
EV 0.895
13
5-1-6
 2.36% (38.4%)
64.8
EV 1.529
14
1-5-3
 2.31% (40.7%)
73.1
EV 1.689
15
6-1-2
 2.23% (42.9%)
92.6
EV 2.065
16
1-6-3
 2.12% (45.0%)
63.9
EV 1.355
17
6-1-3
 2.01% (47.0%)
185.2
EV 3.723
18
4-6-5
 1.77% (48.8%)
78.2
EV 1.384
19
4-1-6
 1.58% (50.4%)
70.9
EV 1.12
20
1-2-4
 1.56% (52.0%)
24.5
EV 0.382
21
5-1-2
 1.4% (53.4%)
87.2
EV 1.221
22
1-3-4
 1.39% (54.7%)
63.9
EV 0.888
23
4-1-5
 1.39% (56.1%)
99.7
EV 1.386
24
4-5-1
 1.33% (57.5%)
99.7
EV 1.326
25
5-1-3
 1.33% (58.8%)
116.3
EV 1.547
26
1-4-6
 1.3% (60.1%)
37.9
EV 0.493
27
6-1-4
 1.24% (61.3%)
113.4
EV 1.406
28
1-5-4
 1.21% (62.5%)
81.7
EV 0.989
29
1-4-5
 1.16% (63.7%)
68.2
EV 0.791
30
1-6-4
 1.09% (64.8%)
45.1
EV 0.492
31
1-4-2
 1.04% (65.8%)
49.5
EV 0.515
32
4-6-1
 1.03% (66.9%)
88.1
EV 0.907
33
1-4-3
 1.01% (67.9%)
101.9
EV 1.029
34
4-5-2
 0.98% (68.9%)
63
EV 0.617
35
4-5-3
 0.97% (69.8%)
266.9
EV 2.589
36
5-6-1
 0.86% (70.7%)
72.6
EV 0.624
37
3-5-6
 0.86% (71.5%)
139.6
EV 1.201
38
5-1-4
 0.83% (72.4%)
127.8
EV 1.061
39
4-6-2
 0.8% (73.2%)
69.2
EV 0.554
40
4-1-2
 0.75% (73.9%)
96.5
EV 0.724
41
4-1-3
 0.74% (74.7%)
259.3
EV 1.919
42
6-5-1
 0.73% (75.4%)
151.2
EV 1.104
43
4-6-3
 0.72% (76.1%)
336.1
EV 2.42
44
3-6-5
 0.69% (76.8%)
453.8
EV 3.131
45
3-1-6
 0.66% (77.5%)
105.5
EV 0.696
46
2-1-6
 0.63% (78.1%)
32.7
EV 0.206
47
6-2-1
 0.63% (78.7%)
144
EV 0.907
48
4-2-6
 0.61% (79.3%)
67.7
EV 0.413
49
4-3-6
 0.58% (79.9%)
302.5
EV 1.755
50
3-1-5
 0.57% (80.5%)
117.8
EV 0.671
51
5-2-1
 0.55% (81.0%)
105.5
EV 0.58
52
4-2-5
 0.55% (81.6%)
63.9
EV 0.351
53
6-3-1
 0.54% (82.1%)
324.1
EV 1.75
54
2-1-5
 0.52% (82.6%)
32
EV 0.166
55
4-3-5
 0.5% (83.1%)
312.9
EV 1.565
56
3-5-1
 0.46% (83.6%)
141.8
EV 0.652
57
5-6-2
 0.45% (84.1%)
103.1
EV 0.464
58
🎯
3-6-1
 0.44% (84.5%)
197.3
EV 0.868
59
5-3-1
 0.43% (84.9%)
139.6
EV 0.6
60
3-4-5
 0.42% (85.3%)
349
EV 1.466
61
2-1-3
 0.41% (85.8%)
43
EV 0.176
62
4-2-1
 0.41% (86.2%)
116.3
EV 0.477
63
3-4-6
 0.4% (86.6%)
259.3
EV 1.037
64
5-6-3
 0.38% (86.9%)
336.1
EV 1.277
65
2-5-6
 0.38% (87.3%)
49.5
EV 0.188
66
6-2-5
 0.38% (87.7%)
135.4
EV 0.515
67
5-2-6
 0.36% (88.1%)
98.6
EV 0.355
68
4-3-1
 0.36% (88.4%)
394.6
EV 1.421
69
2-3-6
 0.35% (88.8%)
105.5
EV 0.369
70
6-5-2
 0.33% (89.1%)
119.4
EV 0.394
71
3-5-4
 0.32% (89.4%)
336.1
EV 1.076
72
5-3-6
 0.32% (89.7%)
168
EV 0.538
73
6-3-5
 0.32% (90.1%)
324.1
EV 1.037
74
3-1-2
 0.31% (90.4%)
144
EV 0.446
75
2-6-5
 0.31% (90.7%)
73.1
EV 0.227
76
6-5-3
 0.31% (91.0%)
252.1
EV 0.782
77
2-3-5
 0.3% (91.3%)
93.5
EV 0.281
78
6-4-1
 0.3% (91.6%)
117.8
EV 0.353
79
2-5-1
 0.29% (91.9%)
67.7
EV 0.196
80
2-3-1
 0.29% (92.2%)
126
EV 0.365
81
3-6-4
 0.28% (92.5%)
477.7
EV 1.338
82
3-6-2
 0.28% (92.7%)
283.6
EV 0.794
83
4-3-2
 0.28% (93.0%)
324.1
EV 0.907
84
3-1-4
 0.27% (93.3%)
266.9
EV 0.721
85
6-2-3
 0.27% (93.5%)
363
EV 0.98
86
3-5-2
 0.27% (93.8%)
252.1
EV 0.681
87
2-6-1
 0.27% (94.1%)
56.7
EV 0.153
88
5-4-1
 0.26% (94.3%)
124.3
EV 0.323
89
4-2-3
 0.26% (94.6%)
232.7
EV 0.605
90
3-4-1
 0.26% (94.9%)
432.2
EV 1.124
91
2-1-4
 0.25% (95.1%)
55.3
EV 0.138
92
6-3-2
 0.25% (95.4%)
378.1
EV 0.945
93
3-2-6
 0.25% (95.6%)
153.8
EV 0.385
94
5-2-3
 0.24% (95.9%)
221.3
EV 0.531
95
2-5-3
 0.24% (96.1%)
135.4
EV 0.325
96
5-6-4
 0.23% (96.3%)
197.3
EV 0.454
97
5-3-2
 0.22% (96.5%)
336.1
EV 0.739
98
6-5-4
 0.21% (96.8%)
181.5
EV 0.381
99
2-6-3
 0.2% (97.0%)
171.2
EV 0.342
100
5-4-6
 0.18% (97.1%)
131.5
EV 0.237
101
3-2-5
 0.18% (97.3%)
103.1
EV 0.186
102
3-2-1
 0.17% (97.5%)
144
EV 0.245
103
6-3-4
 0.16% (97.7%)
312.9
EV 0.501
104
2-5-4
 0.16% (97.8%)
122.6
EV 0.196
105
2-4-6
 0.16% (98.0%)
88.9
EV 0.142
106
6-4-5
 0.16% (98.1%)
201.7
EV 0.323
107
6-2-4
 0.16% (98.3%)
156.4
EV 0.25
108
2-4-1
 0.15% (98.4%)
85.6
EV 0.128
109
6-4-2
 0.15% (98.6%)
121
EV 0.182
110
5-2-4
 0.15% (98.7%)
245.3
EV 0.368
111
2-4-5
 0.14% (98.9%)
129.6
EV 0.181
112
5-3-4
 0.14% (99.0%)
363
EV 0.508
113
3-4-2
 0.14% (99.2%)
283.6
EV 0.397
114
2-3-4
 0.14% (99.3%)
116.3
EV 0.163
115
2-6-4
 0.13% (99.4%)
89.8
EV 0.117
116
5-4-3
 0.13% (99.6%)
504.2
EV 0.655
117
5-4-2
 0.12% (99.7%)
226.9
EV 0.272
118
6-4-3
 0.11% (99.8%)
504.2
EV 0.555
119
2-4-3
 0.11% (99.9%)
181.5
EV 0.2
選手情報開く
１ 畔柳　　俊吾 A2 / 愛知 / 51.5kg / -0.5
スタート 平均 0.17 / 展示 .07 (6.71) 事故 F1 / L0
勝率 4.69 (2連 22.58% / 3連 46.77%) 機力 M:11(29.41%) B:40(22.50%)
２ 石川　　　諒 B1 / 山口 / 52.0kg / -0.5
スタート 平均 0.13 / 展示 .08 (6.82) 事故 F0 / L0
勝率 5.26 (2連 33.64% / 3連 52.73%) 機力 M:4(21.43%) B:35(39.13%)
日R進入ST着
1日目 5 4 0.18 １
３ 佐々木　英樹 B1 / 広島 / 53.6kg / 0.0
スタート 平均 0.17 / 展示 .10 (6.85) 事故 F0 / L0
勝率 4.99 (2連 27.96% / 3連 48.39%) 機力 M:57(14.29%) B:37(39.53%)
日R進入ST着
1日目 6 6 0.16 ３
４ 大橋　栄里佳 A2 / 福岡 / 48.3kg / 0.0
スタート 平均 0.18 / 展示 .07 (6.77) 事故 F0 / L0
勝率 5.12 (2連 31.87% / 3連 45.05%) 機力 M:56(35.19%) B:66(34.56%)
日R進入ST着
1日目 1 5 0.17 ４
５ 後藤　　正宗 B1 / 静岡 / 53.7kg / -0.5
スタート 平均 0.15 / 展示 .04 (6.80) 事故 F0 / L0
勝率 5.76 (2連 40.00% / 3連 58.95%) 機力 M:2(28.57%) B:53(33.81%)
日R進入ST着
1日目 4 1 0.19 ２
６ 麻生　　慎介 A1 / 広島 / 52.0kg / -0.5
スタート 平均 0.14 / 展示 F.01 (6.77) 事故 F1 / L0
勝率 6.20 (2連 41.74% / 3連 66.09%) 機力 M:40(36.96%) B:55(32.26%)
日R進入ST着
1日目 3 4 0.21 ３